Niarja has fallen to the Triglavians. While that was what I assumed would happen, it was over much quicker than expected. It is reported that it was the influence of Null Sec on the Triglavian side which forced the loss through so quickly – as a “Fuck You” to Hi-Sec.
Niarja is now the equivalent of a Null Sec / Wormhole system as far as CONCORD response and Security status loss is concerned, although Hi-Sec restrictions on structures and bombs and bubbles etc remain.
This does not mean the traditional Jita > Amarr trade route is closed for good; but it will be different.
I expect the system will be a heavily hunted gank fest for some time, but when it finally settles down into some level of normal, it will be open to use.
Solo you will usually get through in an Interceptor – but hauling any sort of volume becomes a death wish.
If you can dual box using an alt, with some patience and in quiet hours you will be able to scout / sneak a reasonably quick to warp hauler through.
If you are in a Corp with a dozen mates, you could break up a camp and force some haulers through.
Hell – if your alliance is big enough and combat inclined, you could control the gates and charge tolls or let your own freighters through all day.
(This assumes the Triglavian defensive guns are not that much different to the Faction gate guns.)
What this will stop are those long chains of independent Freighters that ran that trade route all day, every day. That will have an impact. If it relegates Amarr to a distance trading outpost remains to be seen.
If I was a much younger player, there would be a lot to be excited and enthusiastic about. If Hi-Sec ends up as a bunch of Islands, or traversable only on long meandering trade routes, you can expect scarcity and prices to go up. There are plenty of opportunities for the industrialist to profit handsomely. You could also place jump clones and ship caches all around Hi-Sec and continue playing almost as you did in the past.
There are lots of ways it can play out – although it will probably make the game more grindy.